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Solar Revolution: The Economic Transformation of the Global Energy Industry
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| Part No: | 0262524945 |
| Manufacturer: | The MIT Press |
| MFG Part: | |
| Customer Rating: | 4.5 / 5.0 |
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- ISBN13: 9780262524940
- Condition: New
- Notes: BUY WITH CONFIDENCE, Over one million books sold! 98% Positive feedback. Compare our books, prices and service to the competition. 100% Satisfaction Guaranteed
In Solar Revolution, fund manager and former corporate buyout specialist Travis Bradford argues—on the basis of standard business and economic forecasting models—that over the next two decades solar energy will increasingly become the best and cheapest choice for most electricity and energy applications. Solar Revolution outlines the path by which the transition to solar technology and sustainable energy practices will occur. Developments in the photovoltaic (PV) industry over the last ten years have made direct electricity generation from PV cells a cost-effective and feasible energy solution, despite the common view that PV technology appeals only to a premium niche market. Bradford shows that PV electricity today has become the choice of hundreds of thousands of mainstream homeowners and businesses in many markets worldwide, including Japan, Germany, and the American Southwest. Solar energy will eventually be the cheapest source of energy in nearly all markets and locations because PV can bypass the aging and fragile electricity grid and deliver its power directly to the end user, fundamentally changing the underlying economics of energy. As the scale of PV production increases and costs continue to decline at historic rates, demand for PV electricity will outpace supply of systems for years to come. Ultimately, the shift from fossil fuels to solar energy will take place not because solar energy is better for the environment or energy security, or because of future government subsidies or as yet undeveloped technology. The solar revolution is already occurring through decisions made by self-interested energy users. The shift to solar energy is inevitable and will be as transformative as the last century's revolutions in information and communication technologies.
| Great book not a "go green" take on it, but an economics viewpoint | 2010-02-22 | 5 / 5 |
| | Great book that discusses the future of energy. This in not a save the planet type book, it gives an analysis for how we will get our energy in the future and the outcome of that analysis is solar. Bradford does a great job of using conservative estimates and giving both sides of the argument as much as possible within the scope of the book. I would recommend this book to anyone that wants to know the mechanics of why the shift to solar will happen from a dollars and cents and economics standpoint. |
| Better titled "The Estimated Rough Economics of Photovoltaics" | 2009-06-20 | 1 / 5 |
| This should have been a magazine article in the Economist, not a book. As other reviewers have explained, this is about photovoltaics and only photovoltaics (PV) and even at that it's limited. True, other energy sources are mentioned, such as hydrogen fuel cells, but they get about half a page.
It would be better titled "The Estimated Economics of Photovoltaics." But even at that it's weak. Photovoltaics come in many forms from rigid structures to concentrators to flexible fabrics. Only round numbers are used, such as, "In the case of photovoltaic modules, the cost to produce them in the late 1970s was around $25 per watt but has since dropped to less than $3.50 per kW,..." (p, 109) But there's no mention of the applicable configuration.
Some things are footnoted, like "Various forms of solar energy have been used since prehistoric times." But others, like Figure 7.2 where today's PV costs are shown at $6 per watt are not. And the $6 per watt in Figure 7.2 hardly correlates with the $3.50 quoted above for production costs. Yes, I know one is production cost, the other presumably installed cost, but even that isn't clear and an installed cost that's 1700 times production cost deserves some explanation.
I couldn't find one reference to actual PV conversion efficiency, yet there are statements such as "Even at today's efficiency of PV cells, the land required would be 10 million acres, or 0.4 percent of the total land area of the United States." Perhaps the efficiency assumption is buried in the primary documents but it should be shown here since it's pivotal. I didn't notice any reference to the fact that today's PV's degrade over time. PV efficiency and life is fundamental to PV economics.
There are few diagrams, all economics and order of magnitude.
It is clear that a lot of work went into preparing and documenting the book, but in the end you can't do much with what's here. If you wanted, for example, to crudely estimate say the cost of a megawatt of photovoltaic power so you could compare it to say Nevada Solar One, the solar concentrator facility outside Boulder, NV, you only have the $6 per watt from the chart quoted earlier and that gets you to $6 million/megawatt. But you don't know what PV efficiency that's based on. (Solar One's cost is about $4 million/megawatt)
From this book you'd think PV's were the future. But the Europeans are moving ahead with solar thermal at the bulk stage. Do PV's make sense for example on say roof tops and solar thermal makes more sense at the utility level? From this book, you can't even begin to answer that question, or know if a breakthrough in PV efficiency would make a difference.
I liked one of the reviews on the back cover..."deeply researched and hopeful." Says it all, and says nothing.
Wish I could refer you to a better book, but haven't found one yet. There's material on the net. Scientific American's September 2006 and March 2009 issues cover the technologies briefly, but are weak on the economics. There's an absence of clear economic data on solar energy sources. |
| You Say You Want A Revolution | 2009-05-28 | 4 / 5 |
| I'm trying to do my part in promoting clean energy by investing in green stocks including companies like First Solar, Vestas, Suntech and General Electric so what I wanted to get from this book was some information on whether or not I'm making a wise investment. More specifically I wanted to know what is currently holding back solar energy and the possible timetable for a worldwide energy revolution. The author answered most of my questions but new ones arose. Make no mistake the author is a solar power proponent so there is little to no criticism of it as an emerging energy source.
After getting through a history of energy and comparison of new alternative solutions the author finally gets down to the nuts and bolts. The benefits of solar power include its ability to be deployed quickly and in a piecemeal manner. Solar power can start generating energy in months rather than the years that it takes to build a traditional power plant and additional panels can be brought online as needed. Countries like Japan and Germany that are leading the world in solar power deployment are creating their solar infrastructure in a distributed manner. Individuals can generate there own electricity with panels installed on their homes and then send the excess into a 'smart' grid. Unlike wind power, which is considered by some to be an eyesore, solar panels can be created as "roofing materials, architectural glass, and potentially paint and plastic casing"
The author writes, "The amount of sunlight that falls on the earth every day is equivalent to the total energy that is used by the earth's current population in twenty seven years" What is holding solar power back as a viable alternative to fossil fuel energy is simply cost per watt and the barrier is shrinking every day. The lowest cost for a PV system was $5 per watt in 2005 but First Solar has set a goal of 65 cents by 2012. In one chart the author shows solar power costing between 15 and 27 cents per kWh while other forms of energy ranging from 3 to 15 cents per kWh so there is a gap to close. Mr. Bradford points out that the gap is even smaller than it appears because in addition to the apparent cost we pay for energy, taxpayers pay billions in hidden costs including military costs and the environmental price of using dirty fuels. Once solar power approaches parity with fossil fuels we will likely see a positive feedback loop as increased usage cause prices to drop creating increased usage. As the world's appetite for energy grows solar energy is the perfect solution in that the regions of the world most in need of energy are the same regions that are flush with sunlight and in those areas solar energy doesn't need to compete with an already existing fossil fuel energy grid.
One major problem with this book is that the breakneck speed of technology has left it woefully out of date having been published in 2006. The author writes that the "current" six percent efficiency ceiling of PV panels may reach 30 percent in three to five years. However, in late 2006 a solar cell broke the 40 percent efficiency barrier so the author's prediction was too conservative and the book is already outdated. The author's confidence in efficiency improvements was in response to new solar cells that could generate electricity from light rays outside the visible spectrum which leads to one of the questions I had that the author didn't answer. If electricity can be generated using rays outside the visible spectrum does this mean that electrical energy could be generated even on a cloudy day in winter? This is important for someone like myself who lives in northern Ohio.
I'm 100% sold on solar power but I would like to know what the feasibility and environmental impact is of manufacturing millions of solar panels. I mean that is a lot of material. That's one subject never addressed in the book. My belief is that if solar energy is not adopted soon my portfolio value may well be irrelevant given climate change and other problems related to having a fossil fuel based energy policy so I might as well place my bet. I found this book informative however even at a slender 200 pages it still seemed to have quite a bit of filler and as mentioned previously its numbers are out of date. |
| It's happening now | 2009-01-29 | 5 / 5 |
| | Great book. I have taken a renewed interest in solar power the past few years and everything this fellow wrote about only a few years ago is coming to fruition. As the utility companies come to see having residential solar installations not as competition, but rather as a way to ease stress on the grid during peak usage periods (when the sun is the brightest), meaning less brownouts, and less need for new substations, you'll see the rate of change accelerate. And need I say anything about the obvious fact that the Obama Administration is going to kick the renewable energy field and solar into a new gear? |
| Thought Provoking, Very Convincing, and Very Rational | 2008-09-16 | 5 / 5 |
| I think what sets this book apart from other literature about solar energy (or renewables in general) is that it seems the author has managed to separate emotion, political bias, environmental guilt-trips, and ulterior motives from the argument he's trying to establish - that solar energy dominance is inevitable. And no wonder - the author is said to have been a fund manager and corporate buyout specialist, which require discipline from one's own emotions to be successful. He manages to do this strictly on the principle of economics and self-interest, which if you think about it, are the primary drivers for market acceptance and policies.
The book is very insightful, especially about the history of civilization and how energy figures into the picture (e.g. environmental problems forcing the Roman Empire to expand, Germany and Japan forced to make moves based on the lack of oil [I always wondered why Hitler chose to go for Russia when he nearly had Western Europe taken over and why Japan bombed Pearl Harbor when the US was mostly on the sidelines], etc.).
I felt the author never strayed from the principle of economics and self-interest to establish his arguments throughout his book. Moreover, Bradford was very meticulous in providing references for the inquisitive reader to follow up on where there may be some doubt about where certain claims came from or who said what. I'm sure such details would've detracted from the main arguments of the book had they been explicitly integrated, which is why I suspect he had put in all those annotations in the first place.
Indeed, all things considered, it's no wonder why I found Bradford's case for solar very convincing (and personally reassuring somewhat for our future).
As for criticisms, I'm sure this book may have some flaws regarding certain assumptions that were made (though the author seemed to have done his best in being worst-case for solar by being very conservative with solar numbers while being very optimistic for status quo energy), but such is the nature of predictions. Besides, if all the information was readily available to make a bullet-proof argument for solar, it would've already been done. But we all know that there are political forces (mainly from Republicans) wanting to keep the status quo to protect their wealth, and they're stopping at nothing to ensure that's the case from misinformation, delays, or even going to war!
I've read some of the critical reviews, and I question whether they're written by fossil-fuel apologists or Republican sympathizers who want us to remain dependent on some monopolizable form of energy (if not fossil fuels, then maybe nuclear, or some other centralized contrivance; all of which Bradford debunked, by the way).
But seriously, read the book and see for yourself. And if you're real skeptical, follow up on his references and annotations of which there are plenty! |
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